What it is, briefly
An ordinary computer works with bits that are either 0 or 1. A quantum computer uses quantum effects to work with many possibilities at once, which could make certain tasks, such as simulating molecules or solving some optimisation problems, dramatically faster.
It is not a faster version of a normal computer and will not replace one. It is a different tool for a narrow set of problems.
How early it is
Today's machines make frequent errors, and correcting them is the central engineering challenge. Researchers have shown real progress, but machines large and reliable enough for widespread commercial use are generally expected to be years away.
The specialist companies earn small revenues, mostly from research contracts and access to their machines, compared with what the stock market says they are worth.
Two very different ways to hold it
Owning a specialist quantum company is a direct bet on the technology and on that company's approach. Owning a large technology company gives you a little quantum exposure inside a big, profitable business that would be fine without it.
Many quantum funds mix the two, and often include chip companies as well. Look at the holdings to see how much is really quantum.
Expect violent price moves
Shares in specialist quantum companies have multiplied in value and fallen by more than half within the same year. They react to research announcements, to comments from industry figures, and to general appetite for risk.
These companies also fund themselves by issuing new shares, which reduces the slice each existing shareholder owns.
Who is working on it
Specialist quantum companies
Build quantum computers as their main business. Small and loss-making.
For example: IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum
Large technology companies
Run quantum research alongside much larger businesses.
For example: IBM, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft
Supporting equipment and software
Make the control electronics, test equipment and software quantum machines rely on.
For example: Keysight Technologies, Nvidia
Companies are listed to show what each category means. They are not recommendations, and the list is not complete.
Three ways to invest
There is no single right route. Many people combine them, and plenty decide a broad global fund is all they need.
- 1
Buy individual shares
Pick one or more quantum computing companies and buy their shares through a broker or investing app.
- Good for
- Simple to understand. You own exactly what you chose.
- Watch out for
- If you only hold a few companies, one bad result can do real damage. Picking winners is hard, even for professionals.
- 2
Buy a ready-made fund
A fund (often an ETF) holds dozens of companies in one purchase. Examples include the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) in the US and the VanEck Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QNTM) in the UK and Europe.
- Good for
- Instant spread across many companies, with very little effort.
- Watch out for
- You get what the fund provider chose, including companies you may not want. Themed funds usually charge more than broad trackers, so check the yearly fee and the top ten holdings. Which funds you can buy depends on where you live.
- 3
Build your own portfolio
Choose your own mix of companies and how much of each, then buy them through your broker. This is what Arithmos helps with: describe the mix in a sentence and it builds and tests one for you to consider.
- Good for
- You decide exactly what is in and what is out, and you can see the reason for every company.
- Watch out for
- More to look after than a fund. Buying many separate shares can cost more in dealing fees, and a tested result is a simulation, not a promise.
What $100 would have done
To make this concrete, here is a real portfolio from this area that anyone can open on Arithmos, and what $100 put into it would be worth. It is one example, shown as it is, whether it went up or down.
If you’d put $100.00 into this portfolio of 10 companies…
The risks
- Technology risk. It may take far longer than hoped, or a given approach may not work.
- Tiny revenues. Valuations rest on what might happen many years from now.
- Extreme volatility. Large rises and falls within weeks are common.
- Dilution. Companies raise money by issuing shares, shrinking each holder's stake.
- Picking winners. Several competing technologies exist and most will not prevail.
Try it yourself
The quickest way to understand a portfolio is to look at one. Here is how to turn this guide into something you can inspect.
- 1
Start from the idea
The button below opens the builder with this guide's idea already typed in. Change any part of it: the number of companies, the countries, the limit per company.
- 2
Read the reason for every company
You get a list of companies, how much of each, and a plain-English reason for each pick. If one looks wrong to you, you can ask for it to be changed.
- 3
Look at the bad years, not just the good ones
The portfolio is replayed against real past prices. Check the biggest fall along the way, and ask yourself whether you could have sat through it.
- 4
Decide for yourself
If you want to act on it, you buy the shares yourself through your own broker. Arithmos never holds your money or places trades.
“Companies working on quantum computing, mixing specialist quantum firms with large technology companies that have quantum programmes. 12 companies, no single one over 10%.”
Browsing portfolios other people have published is free. See pricing for what building your own includes. A tested result is a simulation using past prices. It is not a forecast and not a recommendation.
Common questions
Is quantum computing a good investment?
Nobody can know. It is a genuine technology with a long and uncertain road to profit. Anything invested in specialist companies should be money you could afford to lose.
When will quantum computers be useful?
Limited uses exist today, mostly in research. Machines capable of broad commercial use are generally expected to be years away, and estimates vary widely.
What is the lowest-risk way to get exposure?
There is no low-risk way, but exposure through large, diversified technology companies or a broad fund is far less dependent on any single quantum company succeeding.
