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Arithmos · Index of the Week

FTSE 100 High-FCF 25

Twenty-five FTSE 100 names with FCF yield above 7% and buyback yield above 3%, weighted by combined shareholder yield.

Why it won

The FTSE 100 is the most-shorted income index in developed markets and the easiest place to find double-digit shareholder yields. This thesis ignores the headline dividend yield and screens for the names actually returning cash via buybacks plus dividends, which is a far cleaner signal in a UK market that has been quietly buying back stock for three years.

The prompt

FTSE 100 constituents with FCF yield above 7% and buyback yield above 3%. 25 names, weighted by combined buyback plus dividend yield, capped at 8% per name. Rebalance every six months.

Methodology

  • Universe: current FTSE 100 constituents only.
  • Screen: trailing 12m FCF yield above 7% AND buyback yield above 3%.
  • Quality filter: net debt to EBITDA below 3x to exclude balance-sheet rollups.
  • Weight by combined buyback plus dividend yield, capped at 8% per name.
  • Semi-annual rebalance in March and September, aligned to LSE results season.

Backtest

CAGR12.7%
Vol14.8%
Sharpe0.74
Max DD-17.2%
Period: Apr 2021 to Apr 2026 (5Y)
5-year backtest in GBP terms beats SPY-GBP by 1.6% annualised, with the alpha mostly concentrated in 2022 to 2024 when UK valuations re-rated from a deep discount.

Figures are illustrative for editorial purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Holdings

TickerNameWeight
SHEL.LShell plc8.0%
BP.LBP plc8.0%
AZN.LAstraZeneca6.0%
GSK.LGSK plc5.0%
HSBA.LHSBC Holdings7.0%
BARC.LBarclays6.0%
LLOY.LLloyds Banking Group5.0%
NWG.LNatWest Group5.0%
STAN.LStandard Chartered4.0%
AAL.LAnglo American3.0%
RIO.LRio Tinto4.0%
GLEN.LGlencore4.0%
BATS.LBritish American Tobacco5.0%
IMB.LImperial Brands4.0%
ULVR.LUnilever3.0%
DGE.LDiageo2.0%
RKT.LReckitt Benckiser2.0%
PRU.LPrudential plc2.0%
LGEN.LLegal & General3.0%
AV.LAviva3.0%
PHNX.LPhoenix Group2.0%
BT-A.LBT Group2.0%
VOD.LVodafone Group2.0%
REL.LRELX plc3.0%
NG.LNational Grid2.0%

Risks

  • Heavy financials and energy weighting means the index is structurally cyclical.
  • BP and Shell account for 16% combined, so an oil price shock dominates short-term performance.
  • Tobacco exposure is uncomfortable for many UK mandates and will need an ex-tobacco variant.

Earlier weeks

Arithmos · investment research & data tool · not investment advice · past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investment research & data tool · not investment advice · not a regulated broker or advisor · past performance does not guarantee future results.